Base Rate Neglect

One concept. Four tiers of command. Which do you speak?

Category: Cognition

Foundational Lexiconignoring the odds
Executive Parlanceprior probability neglect
Scholarly Discourserepresentativeness overweight
Babel ZenithBase Rate Fallacy
Origin: Kahneman & Tversky

Etymology & Meaning

Ignoring general prevalence when judging probability.

In the Boardroom

Ignoring how rare successful startups are when evaluating one.

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